The President's Budget Message for the Years. Text of the message of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Federal Assembly. Foreign policy: priority to China, progress with Japan, willingness to cooperate with the United States
The completed Address of Russian President Vladimir Putin to both chambers of the Federal Assembly became a significant result of the political year and a kind of application for future development. Moreover, as part of the message, the head of state paid much attention to the long-term time horizon of 5-10-15 years, especially in the context of economic development in general and its industrial component in particular. Life analyzed the main points of Vladimir Putin’s speech and identified 10 key provisions that determine its character.
1. The development of Russia is possible only with the unity of the people and respect for their dignity and work. The President especially noted the approaching 100th anniversary of two significant Russian revolutions of 1917 - the February and October, calling on them not to repeat the mistakes of the past and to remain a united people, with respect for their traditions and continuous history.
2. The political system of Russia has developed, all measures to reconfigure it and increase efficiency were taken in a timely manner. The recent elections to the State Duma this year showed that all parties, but especially United Russia, bear a special responsibility for the trust of citizens.
3. You cannot engage in public vandalism or impose a certain worldview on various social groups, which primarily concerns cultural figures on the one hand and some representatives of civil society on the other.
4. Russia was able to reverse negative trends in the healthcare sector and overcome the demographic decline According to the results of 2016, the birth rate will be 1.78, which exceeds the level of many developed European countries. In the country in 2018, there will be 94 perinatal centers operating, and the mortality rate per 1000 people will drop to a coefficient of 5.9.
5. The development of education, especially in connection with the course towards building a new economy based on the deep penetration of innovation and IT technologies, will require modernization, children's technology parks will be developed, and budget places for technical and natural science specialties will increase.
6. The state will support youth volunteer and environmental projects, as well as NGOs that provide social services, which will have access to budget funding starting next year.
7. The defense sector remains the engine of economic development, whose export share is in the region of $16 billion, and labor productivity increased by 9.8%, which is the result of updating the technological park of equipment and machine tools. The defense industry is actively catching up with agriculture, which from a “bottomless hole” has turned into an extremely profitable industry conquering foreign markets - the export of agricultural products at the end of 2016 came close to the sale of weapons, amounting to $14.5 billion.
8. The moratorium on changes to the tax system within 4 years, introduced in 2014, will be maintained, and starting next year, together with the relevant community and business, the contours of a new tax reform will be outlined, which will come into force on January 1, 2019 and become the long-term basis of tax legislation.
9. The driver of the economy will be information and “end-to-end” technologies, which will give countries that have mastered their strategic advantages the opportunity to benefit from gigantic technological rent. The Russian IT technology sector has increased exports almost from scratch in 2010 to 7 billion this year, and the state will continue to support it, in particular, by extending benefits on insurance payments.
10. Russia will pursue a peaceful and consistent policy in the field of compliance with international law - but will not allow anyone to talk to it in a mentoring tone, in the style of teachings. Russia will develop a strategic partnership with China and India, and also hopes that with the advent of the new American administration, cooperation with the United States will be established on issues of combating terrorism, maintaining the nonproliferation regime and global stability.
Life conducted a full text broadcast of the most important political event of the outgoing season, which you can view.
MESSAGE
PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
TO THE FEDERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
MESSAGE OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
FEDERAL ASSEMBLY
Good afternoon, dear colleagues! Dear members of the Federation Council! Dear deputies of the State Duma! Citizens of Russia!
Today, as usual in Messages, we will talk about our tasks in the economy, social sphere, domestic and foreign policy. This time we will pay more attention to the economy, social issues and domestic politics.
We have to solve all these problems in difficult, extraordinary conditions, as has happened more than once in history. And the people of Russia have once again convincingly proven that they are capable of responding to difficult challenges, defending and defending national interests, sovereignty and the country’s independent course.
But here is what I would like to say, dear colleagues, in this regard. I’ve already said this publicly several times, but I’d like to repeat it today.
Citizens have united - and we see this, we must say thanks to our citizens for this - around patriotic values, not because they are happy with everything, that everything suits them. No, there are enough difficulties and problems now. But there is an understanding of their reasons, and most importantly, confidence that together we will definitely overcome them. Willingness to work for Russia, cordial, sincere concern for it - this is what underlies this unification.
At the same time, people expect that they will be provided with ample and equal opportunities for self-realization, for implementing entrepreneurial, creative, and civic initiatives; they expect respect for themselves, for their rights, freedoms, and for their work.
The principles of fairness, respect and trust are universal. We firmly defend them - and, as we see, not without results - in the international arena. But to the same extent we are obliged to guarantee their implementation within the country, in relation to each person and the entire society.
Any injustice or untruth is perceived very sharply. This is generally a feature of our culture. Society decisively rejects arrogance, rudeness, arrogance and selfishness, no matter who all this comes from, and increasingly values such qualities as responsibility, high morality, concern for public interests, willingness to hear others and respect their opinions.
The role of the State Duma as a representative body has grown. In general, the authority of the legislative branch has strengthened. It must be supported and confirmed by deeds. This applies to all political forces represented in parliament.
But, of course, the United Russia party, which, by the way, is celebrating its fifteenth anniversary today, has a special responsibility. The party has a constitutional majority in the State Duma and is the main support of the Government in parliament. And we need to organize our joint work in such a way that all promises and obligations made to citizens are fulfilled.
It was the citizens who determined the results of the election campaign, chose the path of creative development of the country, and proved that we live in a healthy society, confident in its fair demands, in which immunity to populism and demagoguery is strengthened and the importance of mutual support, cohesion, and unity is highly valued.
We are not talking, of course, about some kind of dogma, about ostentatious, false unity, much less about coercion to a certain worldview - all this, as you well know, happened in our history, and we are not going to go back to the past.
But this does not mean that by juggling with beautiful words and hiding behind arguments about freedom, someone can offend the feelings of other people and national traditions.
You know, if someone considers themselves more advanced, more intelligent, even considers themselves smarter than someone else in something - if you are like that, but treat other people with respect, this is natural.
At the same time, of course, I consider a counter-aggressive reaction unacceptable, especially if it results in vandalism and violation of the law. The state will react harshly to such facts.
Tomorrow we have a meeting of the Council for Culture - we will definitely discuss issues that cause broad discussion, we will talk about the principles of mutual responsibility of representatives of civil society and artists.
But I want to especially emphasize: in culture, in politics, in the media and in public life, in polemics on economic issues, no one can prohibit free thinking and openly expressing one’s position.
I repeat, when we talk about solidarity and unity, we mean the conscious, natural consolidation of citizens for the sake of the successful development of Russia.
Is it possible to achieve meaningful strategic goals in a fragmented society? Is it possible to solve these problems with parliament, where instead of effective work there are competitions of ambitions and fruitless bickering?
Is it possible to develop with dignity on the shaky ground of a weak state and a weak-willed government controlled from the outside that has lost the trust of its citizens? The answer is obvious: of course not.
Recently we have seen many countries where such a situation opened the way to adventurers, coups and, ultimately, anarchy. Everywhere the result is the same: human tragedies and sacrifices, decline and ruin, disappointment.
It is also of concern that in the world, even in the seemingly most prosperous countries and stable regions, more and more new fault lines and conflicts are emerging on political, national, religious, and social grounds.
All this is superimposed on the acute migration crisis that, for example, European and other countries are facing. We know well the consequences of so-called great upheavals. Unfortunately, in our country in the last century there were many of them.
The coming year 2017 is the centenary year of the February and October revolutions. This is a good reason to once again turn to the causes and very nature of the revolution in Russia. Not only for historians and scientists - Russian society needs an objective, honest, in-depth analysis of these events.
This is our common history, and we need to treat it with respect. The outstanding Russian and Soviet philosopher Alexei Fedorovich Losev also wrote about this. “We know the whole thorny path of our country,” he wrote, “we know the agonizing years of struggle, lack, suffering, but for the son of his Motherland, all this is his own, inalienable, dear.”
I am sure that the absolute majority of our citizens have exactly this feeling of the Motherland, and we need the lessons of history, first of all, for reconciliation, for strengthening the social, political, civil harmony that we have managed to achieve today.
It is unacceptable to drag splits, anger, grievances and bitterness of the past into our lives today, to speculate in our own political and other interests on the tragedies that affected almost every family in Russia, no matter which side of the barricades our ancestors found themselves on then. Let us remember: we are one people, we are one people, and we have one Russia.
Dear Colleagues!
The meaning of our entire policy is to save people, to increase human capital as the main wealth of Russia. Therefore, our efforts are aimed at supporting traditional values and family, demographic programs, improving the environment, human health, and developing education and culture.
In 2013—demographers have a concept called “fertility rate”—it was 1.7 in Russia, which is higher than in most European countries. For example, I’ll say: Portugal - 1.2; in Spain and Greece - 1.3; Austria, Germany, Italy - 1.4; in the Czech Republic - 1.5. This is data for 2013. In 2015, the total fertility rate in Russia will be even higher, slightly, but still higher - 1.78.
We will continue changes in the social sphere so that it becomes closer to people, to their needs, and is more modern and fair. Social sectors must attract qualified people, talented youth, so we are raising the salaries of specialists and improving their working conditions.
I would like to note that competition for medical and pedagogical universities - quite recently it was almost zero - is steadily growing. In 2016, it was 7.8 people for teaching specialties, and after admission in 2016, the total competition for budget-funded places in medical universities was already almost 28 people per place. May God grant health and success to all young specialists in their work in the future.
I remember well how at one time I discussed with my colleagues projects for the development of high-tech medical care, as well as a network of perinatal centers, which we did not have at all. Now, in 2018, there will already be 94 of them in Russia.
And today our doctors save newborns in the most difficult cases. And according to these indicators, we have also taken the position of the leading countries in the world.
At the end of 2015, the infant mortality rate in Russia was 6.5 per thousand live births, and in the European region of the World Health Organization the figure was 6.6, that is, we were already a little better. Based on the results of 10 months of 2016, Russia reached the level of 5.9.
Over the past ten years, the volume of high-tech medical care has increased 15 times. Hundreds of thousands of complex operations are performed not only in leading federal centers, but also in regional clinics. If in 2005, when we started this program, 60 thousand people in Russia received high-tech medical care, in 2016 this will already be 900 thousand. We also need to move on. But still, compare: 60 thousand and 900 - the difference is significant.
Next year we need to put in place mechanisms for sustainable financing of high-tech care. This will make it possible to further increase its availability and reduce waiting times for operations.
In general, it must be said frankly that problems in healthcare remain in general; there are still a lot of them. And above all, they concern primary care. Its development must be given priority attention.
Citizens are often faced with queues and a formal, indifferent attitude. Doctors are overloaded, it is difficult to get to the right specialist. There are often cases when clinics are equipped with the latest equipment, but medical workers simply do not have enough qualifications to use this equipment.
Starting next year, regular retraining of doctors will be organized at federal and regional medical centers and universities. At the same time, with the help of an educational certificate, a specialist will be able to choose where and how to improve his qualifications.
We will continue to increase the level of healthcare informatization in order to make it convenient and simple to make appointments and maintain documentation. It is necessary to free doctors from routine, from filling out heaps of reports and certificates, and give them more time to work directly with the patient.
Also, with the help of information technology, the efficiency of control over the market of vital drugs will be significantly increased. This will make it possible to get rid of fakes and counterfeits, and stop inflated prices when purchasing medicines for hospitals and clinics.
Over the next two years, I propose to connect all hospitals and clinics in our country to high-speed Internet. This will allow doctors, even in a remote city or village, to use the capabilities of telemedicine and quickly receive advice from colleagues from regional or federal clinics.
I would like to draw the attention of the Ministry of Communications to this. The Minister assured us that this task is absolutely realistic and achievable.
I just said this from the podium, the whole country will now watch this closely.
Taking into account its geography, huge, sometimes difficult to access territories, Russia also needs a well-equipped air ambulance service. Starting next year, the air ambulance development program will cover 34 regions of the country, which will receive funds from the federal budget.
First of all, this is Siberia, the North, the Far East. For these purposes (the deputies know about this, this was also your initiative) in 2017, 3.3 billion rubles will be allocated (this should pass in the second reading) for the purchase of aviation services as part of the air ambulance development project.
Dear Colleagues! Everywhere throughout our large country, children should study in convenient, comfortable, modern conditions, so we will continue the program of reconstruction and renovation of schools. We should not be left with school buildings that are in disrepair, dilapidated, and lack basic amenities.
It is finally necessary to solve the problem of third shifts, and then second shifts. And of course, additional efforts need to be directed toward improving the qualifications of teachers. You know that since 2016, a program to create new places in general education organizations has been implemented. This program is designed for 2016 - 2025, 25 billion rubles are provided.
By the way, you and I know well that this is primarily the responsibility of the regional level. But we decided to support the regions in this important area. In total, 187,998 new school places are planned to be created between 2016 and 2019.
At the same time, the most important thing that worries parents and teachers, the public, is, of course, the content of the educational process, to what extent school education meets the two basic tasks that Academician Likhachev spoke about: providing knowledge and educating a moral person. He rightly believed that the moral basis is the main thing that determines the viability of society: economic, state, creative.
But teaching hours from the school curriculum alone will clearly not be enough here - we need projects in the theater, cinema, television, museums, and on the Internet that will be of interest to young people and will attract the attention of young people to Russian classical literature, culture, and history.
At school, it is necessary to actively develop creativity; schoolchildren must learn to think independently, work individually and in a team, solve non-standard problems, set goals for themselves and achieve them, so that in the future this will become the basis for their prosperous, interesting life.
It is important to cultivate a culture of research and engineering work. Over the next two years, the number of modern children's technology parks in Russia will increase to 40; they will serve as a support for the development of a network of technical clubs throughout the country. Business, universities, and research institutes must join in this work so that the children have a clear understanding: they all have equal opportunities for a start in life, that their ideas and knowledge are in demand in Russia, and they will be able to prove themselves in domestic companies and laboratories.
As the educational center for talented children “Sirius” has already declared itself successful. I believe that we need a whole constellation of such platforms, and I would recommend that the heads of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation think about creating centers for supporting gifted children in the regions on the basis of the best universities and schools.
But at the same time, what would I like to say here and what would I like to draw attention to? Our entire education system should be based on a fundamental principle: every child and teenager is gifted and capable of succeeding in science, creativity, sports, profession and life. Revealing his talents is our task, this is the success of Russia.
Dear Colleagues! I see in the younger generation a reliable, strong support for Russia in the turbulent, complex 21st century. I believe that this generation is capable of not only responding to the challenges of the time, but also participating on equal terms in shaping the intellectual, technological, and cultural agenda for global development.
It is no coincidence that many schoolchildren and students today participate in volunteer projects; they are actively developing in such important areas as caring for the sick, supporting the elderly, people with disabilities, education, sports, culture, local history, search movements, caring for nature and animals .
A special feature of our time is the widespread involvement of citizens in a variety of charitable events. Calls on social networks and the media to raise funds for the treatment of patients and to help children quickly receive a response, and people do this sincerely, selflessly, as a response to the dictates of their hearts. Sometimes you are even surprised how people with little income quickly respond to their inner need to help those who especially need it.
I ask the Public Chamber and the Agency for Strategic Initiatives to substantively engage in supporting volunteer and charitable movements and non-profit organizations. The will and generosity of the citizens who participate in such projects create the atmosphere of common affairs that Russia needs so much, create colossal social potential, and it must be in demand.
It is necessary to remove all barriers to the development of volunteerism and provide comprehensive assistance to socially oriented non-profit organizations. The main decisions here have already been made. Starting next year, opportunities will open up for non-profit organizations with relevant experience to provide social services financed from the budget.
Now, dear colleagues, I would like to address many of you. I want both governors and municipal authorities to hear me. I ask you, as they say, not to be greedy, not to give out of habit, out of established preference, exclusively to government structures, but to involve social services and non-profit organizations to the maximum extent possible. Let's be honest, they haven't lost sight of it yet; a cordial attitude towards people is very important. And let's together keep these issues under special control.
We are all interested in ensuring that the active entry of NPOs into the social sphere leads to an improvement in its quality. I instruct the Government, together with legislators, to complete the formation of a clear legal framework for the activities of NGOs - performers of socially useful services, to establish requirements for their competence, and at the same time, of course, without adding additional bureaucratic barriers. It is necessary to appreciate the demanding, interested, active position of citizens.
Once again I want to appeal to many of you: do not hide in your offices, do not be afraid of dialogue with people - meet halfway, talk honestly and openly with people, support their initiatives, especially when it comes to issues such as the improvement of cities and towns, conservation historical appearance and creation of a modern living environment.
Unfortunately, sometimes these issues are resolved behind the scenes, and when this happens, you really want to ask: “Are you sure that what you are proposing, based only on the ideas that arise in the back offices, is the best offer? Wouldn’t it be better to seek advice?” with people, ask them how they want to see the streets, their yards, parks and embankments, sports and playgrounds?”
Next year we will allocate 20 billion rubles to the regions for improvement programs, including single-industry towns, and it is a matter of principle that the residents themselves should participate in making decisions on the use of these resources and determine which improvement projects to implement first. I ask the All-Russian Popular Front to actively join in this work, and at the same time I draw attention to: it is necessary not only to organize effective control, but with its help to achieve the specific result that people are waiting for, and, of course, we need to support citizens who are ready to join improvement projects . It is important that civil society actively participates in solving such problems as improving environmental legislation, preserving rare species of animals and plants, and creating a humane system for treating stray animals.
Next year, 2017, has been declared the Year of Ecology. I instruct the Government to prepare programs for the conservation of unique natural symbols of Russia, such as the Volga, Baikal, and Altai.
Throughout the country, we need to start cleaning up contaminated areas, eliminating the landfills that the surroundings of many settlements have turned into. We recently spoke about this with activists of the All-Russian Popular Front. This is a problem not only in large cities, but also in villages and towns.
Further, large-scale programs to develop the modernization of the road network are already underway in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Starting next year, we will begin such projects in other large cities and urban agglomerations, where about 40 million people live. In two years, at least half of the roads here should be put in order. Now I will not dwell on this in more detail here, the decision has been made, the appropriate means have been outlined, we just need to work effectively.
We will pay the necessary attention to both the most important federal highways and the construction of a facility of national importance - the Crimean Bridge, its construction is progressing according to schedule.
Dear colleagues, two years ago we were faced with serious economic challenges, with unfavorable conditions on world markets, with sanctions that tried to force us to dance to someone else’s tune, as our people say, to neglect our fundamental national interests. However, I repeat, the main reasons for the economic slowdown lie, first of all, in our internal problems. First of all, this is a shortage of investment resources, modern technologies, professional personnel, insufficient development of competition, and flaws in the business climate. Now the decline in the real sector has stopped, and there has even been a slight industrial growth. But you know that last year our GDP decline was about 3.7 percent, I think that this year it will be insignificant. Over the 10 months of 2016 it amounted to 0.3 percent, and I think that this will be approximately the case.
Programs to support a number of industries, as well as the housing market, played an important role. I will also say this now, because there has been an increase in industrial production, a small, but positive trend - of course, it will need to be maintained.
So, on the housing market. In 2015, more than 85 million square meters of housing were commissioned. This is a record figure in the entire history of the country.
We will continue to provide targeted assistance to those sectors of the economy that are still facing negative conditions. I have already said that there has been a certain, modest, but still growth in the field of industrial production.
In the automotive industry as a whole, we have a slight decrease, but for trucks - an increase of 14.7 percent, for light commercial vehicles - an increase of 2.9, for buses - an increase of 35.1 percent. In railway engineering there is an increase of 21.8, in freight cars - 26. The growth in the production of machinery and equipment for agriculture is showing very good dynamics - 26.8 percent. There is also a positive trend in light industry.
We have ensured macroeconomic stability, which is very important, and maintained financial reserves. The gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank did not decrease, but even increased. If on January 1, 2016 it was 368.39 billion dollars, now it is 389.4, almost 400 billion. The dynamics here are also positive.
We expect that by the end of this year, inflation will decrease significantly; it will be below 6 percent. Here I would also like to turn to numbers. If you remember, inflation in 2015 was 12.9 percent. I hope that this year it will not rise above six, it will be somewhere around 5.8. The dynamics are obviously positive and significantly positive.
Let me remind you that the lowest inflation was recorded in 2011. It was 6.1 percent. I repeat again, this year it may even be less. This means we can actually reach the 4 percent target next year. These are very good preconditions for achieving significant growth on the basis of a healthy economy.
However, I want to emphasize: stabilization does not mean an automatic transition to a sustainable rise. If we do not solve the basic problems of the Russian economy, if we do not fully unleash new growth factors, then we may be stuck near the zero mark for years, and that means we will have to constantly squeeze in, save, and postpone our development until later. We cannot afford this.
We have a different path, which involves clearly setting goals and gradually, systematically achieving them. It is this approach that has repeatedly given significant positive results, and in a fairly short time. Thus, at one time it seemed that problems in agriculture would exist almost forever. We know how they talked about this and how offended our agricultural producers were when they talked about agriculture as a kind of black hole, where no matter how much money you give, there is still no result. No, it turns out that everything can be arranged completely differently. We found proven solutions, adopted a state program, created a flexible system of supporting agricultural producers, and today the agricultural sector is a successful industry that feeds the country and conquers international markets.
But here, as our people say, every cloud has a silver lining, our so-called partners have introduced sanctions, which I said, we are taking retaliatory measures. Well, we helped our agricultural producers in the domestic market. But they must not forget that this cannot and probably will not continue forever, and the consumer needs a competitive environment in the market, so this favorable situation that has developed today must, of course, be taken full advantage of.
The export of agricultural products, which I have already mentioned, gives us more today than the sale of weapons. Just recently, we probably couldn’t even imagine this. I have already spoken about this publicly, and I can repeat it again from this rostrum. By the way, in the field of arms exports, we also maintain a fairly serious position: in 2015, $14.5 billion worth of exports were sold on the foreign market, and agricultural products worth more than 16 billion, 16.2 billion. This year we expect even more, it will be 16.9, most likely very good. Let's thank agricultural workers for this.
In the development of agriculture, much depends on the regions. I believe that they need to be given more independence in determining the priorities for the use of federal subsidies to support the agro-industrial complex, and their volume itself should be linked to an increase in arable land, an increase in productivity, and other qualitative indicators of production efficiency, thereby creating an incentive for putting idle agricultural land into circulation and introducing advanced agricultural technologies.
Here I would like to emphasize: if we give more independence in the use of federal budget funds, federal support, then the regions should also be responsible for the results and effective investment of the resources received, for strengthening their own economic base, solving problems in the social sphere, in housing and communal services increase.
Further, in order for our farmers to have new opportunities to enter the market, it is necessary to pay special attention to supporting agricultural cooperation. I ask the Ministry of Agriculture, Rosselkhozbank, Rosagroleasing, as well as the Corporation for the Development of Small and Medium Enterprises to take up this issue; next year we will replenish its capital by almost 13 billion rubles.
We carried out a deep modernization of defense-industrial enterprises and the defense-industrial complex. The result is an increase in production volumes and, most importantly, a significant increase in labor productivity. The defense industry shows very good performance here and sets a good example. In 2016, the expected growth rate of defense industry production will be 10.1 percent, and the expected growth rate of labor productivity will be 9.8 percent.
And now it is necessary to focus the industry on the production of modern competitive civilian products for medicine, energy, aviation and shipbuilding, space, and other high-tech industries. In the next decade, its share should be at least a third of the total production volume in the defense-industrial complex.
I ask the Government to organize systematic work to solve this problem with the participation of development institutions, VEB, the Russian Export Center, and the Industrial Support Fund.
Dear colleagues, the IT industry has become one of the fastest growing industries in our country, which is very pleasing. The volume of exports of domestic companies has doubled over five years. I have just given figures for the volume of exports of the defense industry and agricultural products. The defense industry is 14.5 billion. More recently, IT technologies amounted to a figure that was close to zero, now it is 7 billion dollars.
Other indicators also increased: revenue, tax revenues. Such returns were provided, including benefits on insurance premiums. The Ministry of Finance asked me not to say that this was only thanks to the benefits; I say that there were other, of course, tools to support the industry, but still we must admit that these benefits played a significant role in supporting IT companies. This measure allowed them to effectively realize their intellectual innovative potential. Look, at the beginning of their journey, in 2010, their tax contributions amounted to just over 28 billion rubles, and two years later - already 54 billion rubles. Imagine how tall it is! At the same time, the so-called lost income, taking into account benefits, is only 16 billion rubles. That is, real income even for the budget. To maintain this dynamic, I propose to extend these benefits until 2023. I am sure that in the next decade there is every opportunity to make the IT industry one of the key export industries in Russia.
The examples mentioned above show that we are already purposefully changing the structure of the economy, updating existing industries and forming new ones, creating modern companies capable of operating in world markets. We need to continue to move in this direction systematically and aggressively. What is needed is not abstract scenarios in which little depends on us, but a professional, verified forecast of development. It is necessary to clearly define what contribution to economic growth will be made by improving the business climate, launching large investment projects, increasing non-resource exports, supporting small and medium-sized businesses, and other measures, and what the role of regions and individual industries will be.
I instruct the Government, with the participation of leading business associations, no later than May of next year, to develop a substantive action plan until 2025, the implementation of which will make it possible to achieve economic growth rates above world rates at the turn of 2019-2020, and therefore to increase Russia’s position in the global economy.
Dear Colleagues! I repeat, it is important that such a plan is supported and has the confidence of the business community, so that entrepreneurs are actively involved in its implementation. Today, it is obvious that people are growing in demand for expanded economic freedoms (we have talked about this more than once), for stable, sustainable, predictable rules for doing business, including the tax system.
Let me remind you that in 2014 we decided to fix the current tax conditions for business for four years. They did not revise them, despite changes in the economic situation, and this certainly had a positive impact on the work of enterprises.
At the same time, we must orient our tax system so that it works for the main goal: to stimulate business activity, to grow the economy and investment, and to create competitive conditions for the development of our enterprises. It is necessary to streamline existing fiscal benefits, make them more targeted, and abandon ineffective instruments.
I propose that over the next year, we carefully and comprehensively consider proposals for setting up the tax system, and be sure to do this with the participation of business associations. Despite the internal political calendar, we still need to prepare and adopt in 2018 all the relevant amendments to the legislation, to the Tax Code, and put them into effect from January 1, 2019, fixing new, stable rules for the long term.
At the same time, I ask the Government to work on improving the mechanisms for ensuring a sustainable budget and public finances, fulfilling all our obligations, regardless of external factors, including hydrocarbon prices.
Further. We have seriously updated the legal framework in the field of entrepreneurship. Now it is important to ensure effective law enforcement - and above all on the ground. Please note that in each region of the country, basic services for business: construction permits, access to infrastructure, and so on and so forth - must fully comply with the requirements of federal legislation and best regional practices.
Dear Colleagues! Quite recently in Yaroslavl, I think, we gathered and talked about this topic. This is some kind of impenetrable topic. This is an extremely important area of our joint activities. We will closely monitor what is happening in the regions in these areas and determine the quality of work of regional teams largely based on these indicators. And this fundamental task must be solved next year. This will allow us to ensure not only a uniform, but also an equally high quality of business environment in all regions of Russia.
You and I have talked a lot about improving control and supervisory authorities; we have been talking about this for many years. Starting next year, their transparency will radically increase; data will be publicly available: who checks whom, how often, what results are obtained.
This will make it possible to quickly respond to abuses, to every fact of violation of the rights of entrepreneurs by controllers. Now I will not list all these decisions made, there are enough of them, it is only necessary that they be implemented. It is necessary to cancel instructions that do not in any way affect the quality of services or ensure the safety of citizens, but at the same time tie businesses hand and foot.
I would like to draw the attention of the Government: in the work of control and supervisory authorities, it is necessary to accelerate the introduction of an approach based on risk assessment, which will significantly reduce the number of inspections, but increase their effectiveness. I will add that supervisory authorities should be engaged not only in identifying violations, but also in prevention, not formally, but meaningfully, and (this is very important!) provide advisory assistance to entrepreneurs, especially those who are just starting their own business.
I have already given a direct instruction to exclude the interpretation of “the work of self-employed citizens as illegal entrepreneurial activity.” There is no need to cling to them for far-fetched reasons. And so that there are no such reasons at all, I ask you to clearly define the legal status of self-employed citizens over the next year and give them the opportunity to work normally and calmly.
Everyone who works honestly in their business or as an employee should feel that the state and society are on their side. Justice is not about equalization, but about expanding freedom, creating conditions for work that brings respect, prosperity and success. And vice versa - everything that limits opportunities and violates people’s rights is unfair.
Last year's Address talked about pressure on business from some representatives of law enforcement agencies. As a result of such actions, successful companies often fall apart, and people's property is taken away.
I would like to thank the parliamentarians for their support of the bill, which significantly increases the criminal liability of law enforcement officers for fabricating cases, including with the aim of interfering with the work of entrepreneurs.
I will separately dwell on the topic of the fight against corruption. In recent years, there have been many high-profile cases against officials at the municipal, regional, and federal levels. At the same time, I would like to emphasize that the vast majority of civil servants are honest, decent people working for the good of the country. But neither position, nor high connections, nor past merits can be a cover for dishonest government officials. However (and I would also like to draw attention to this) before the court’s decision, no one has the right to pronounce a verdict on a person’s guilt or innocence.
And further. Unfortunately, it has become our practice to raise information noise around so-called high-profile cases. And representatives of investigative and law enforcement agencies themselves often sin with this. Dear colleagues, I would like to draw your attention to this and say that the fight against corruption is not a show, it requires professionalism, seriousness and responsibility, only then will it produce results and receive conscious, broad support from society.
Dear Colleagues! It is obvious that external restrictions and rising costs of domestic borrowing have reduced the availability of financial resources for enterprises and citizens. Nevertheless, the banking system managed to replace foreign lending to our companies and stabilize the situation - this is an obvious fact.
Now we must support business activity, the implementation of large economic projects, and affordable financing, especially since inflation is decreasing, I have already spoken about this, and this creates objective conditions for reducing the cost of bank loans. I repeat: the situation has indeed improved a little, but only in certain sectors. In general, lending to the economy is showing unstable dynamics.
As part of anti-crisis support in 2015-2016, we replenished the capital of the banking system by 827 billion rubles. According to estimates, this resource allowed banks to significantly increase lending to the real sector.
However, the volume of such loans has not increased this year, and even decreased slightly. I know about calculations in rubles, in foreign currencies, but the decrease still occurred, even taking into account the exchange rate difference. I would like to draw the attention of those experts who believe that it is very important to pay attention to the exchange rate difference.
Yes, everything is clear, the value of the ruble has changed against the dollar, against the euro, and this must be taken into account, but still, even taking this into account, a decrease in lending is still taking place.
Of course, there is no doubt that we need to stimulate lending to the real sector. But the key question remains: what methods and means to do this? It is obvious that only stable banks with a solid capital reserve can develop lending.
This year, domestic banks have restored their profitability. The profit of this sector of the economy for 10 months of last year amounted to 193 billion rubles, and for the same period of this year already 714 billion rubles. Almost four times the growth.
In addition, thanks to the consistent and decisive work of the Central Bank, the banking system is cleared of offices that violate the law, the rights of clients, and conduct dubious financial transactions. Many of them, at least weak players, left the market. The banking sector has been rehabilitated and is being continued by the Central Bank. All this is a good basis for a rapid revival of the economy and the development of lending to the real sector.
In general, a number of countries have created incentives for banks to lend specifically to this particular sector of the economy. At the same time, in some countries, restrictions on the ability of banks to invest raised funds in financial instruments are being discussed.
I’m not saying that we need to blindly copy everything that is being done abroad, especially since the Russian economy and its structure differ significantly from other countries that apply such measures, but analyze all this practice, adopt everything that suits us , it is possible and necessary.
Thus, the non-banking financial sector operates successfully in many countries. It should be developed here too - this allows us to attract funds from investors and citizens into the economy through bonds and other mechanisms.
By the way, we have been discussing this topic for quite some time. I hope that the Bank of Russia and the Government will jointly work out proposals for the development of the financial market. Everything should, of course, be aimed at the objectives of economic growth, while any changes should not lead to macroeconomic imbalances and the inflation of so-called bubbles in the economy.
It is very important to support lending to small businesses, which continues to decline. What can and should be done additionally for this? Representatives of financial authorities also believe that this is possible.
If the largest banks, due to the scale and complexity of their operations, are subject to strict requirements in accordance with international standards, and some experts believe that even for us they are too strict, but now we will not go into details.
In any case, small regional banks that perform the important function of lending to small businesses and households and, as a rule, carry out the simplest banking operations, could operate under significantly simplified requirements for regulating their activities.
Moreover, this certainly cannot create any risks for the banking system as a whole, given their modest share in the entire banking system - only 1.5 percent of all banking assets. Such differentiated regulation of the banking system will allow clients to contact the bank that best suits their needs, and small businesses will not experience competition for credit resources with large companies.
Of course, the fundamental condition remains unchanged - each level of the banking system must be healthy and stable, so that both clients and depositors can be confident in the security of their funds.
Dear Colleagues! To reach a new level of development of the economy and social sectors, we need our own advanced developments and scientific solutions. It is necessary to focus on areas where the powerful technological potential of the future is accumulating, and these are digital and other so-called end-to-end technologies that today determine the appearance of all spheres of life.
Countries that can generate them will have a long-term advantage, the opportunity to receive enormous technological rent. Those who do not do this will find themselves in a dependent, vulnerable position. Cross-cutting ones are those that are used in all industries, these are digital, quantum, robotics, neurotechnology, and so on.
It is also necessary to take into account that in digital technologies, for example, there are risks, of course. It is necessary to strengthen protection against cyber threats, and the stability of all elements of infrastructure, the financial system, and public administration must be significantly increased.
I propose to launch a large-scale systemic program for the development of the economy of a new technological generation, the so-called digital economy. In its implementation, we will rely specifically on Russian companies, scientific, research and engineering centers of the country.
This is a question of national security and technological independence of Russia, in the full sense of the word - our future. It is necessary to take an inventory and remove all administrative, legal, and any other barriers that prevent businesses from entering both existing and emerging high-tech markets.
Provide such projects with financial resources, including focusing the work of the updated VEB (Development Bank) on these tasks. We will need qualified personnel, engineers, workers ready to perform tasks at a new level. Therefore, together with business, we are building a modern system of secondary vocational education, organizing the training of college and technical school teachers on the basis of advanced international standards.
We will increase the number of budget places in engineering disciplines, IT specialties, and other key areas that determine economic development. Next year, centers of excellence will be created at leading universities, including regional ones, to provide intellectual and personnel support for projects related to the formation of new industries and markets.
Fundamental science should also serve as a powerful factor in the accumulation of scientific and technological resources necessary for economic growth and social development. Its task is twofold: to assess and predict future trends and to propose optimal solutions to meet the challenges we face.
And in the scientific field, as elsewhere, we will develop competition and support the strong, capable of producing practical results. This must be taken into account by the Russian Academy of Sciences and all scientific organizations. We will continue to build a research infrastructure that will allow us to solve large-scale scientific problems.
Within the framework of the megagrant program, more than 200 laboratories have already been created, without any exaggeration, world-class, they are headed by scientists who determine trends in global scientific development. By the way, many of them are our compatriots who previously left abroad.
I recently met with a group of such researchers. Already now, many of them spend most of their time working in Russian laboratories; they work successfully and with pleasure. And they see that today in Russia interesting scientific problems are being set, a good research base is being created and material conditions are at a decent level.
But, of course, people have the right and must understand that they have a work horizon and a planning horizon; in this regard, I propose to ensure long-term funding for effective research projects, including through the resources of the Russian Science Foundation.
At the same time, it is fundamentally important to support our talented young Russian scientists, there are many of them, so that they create their own research teams and laboratories in Russia. A special line of grants will be launched for them, designed for a period of up to seven years. For these purposes, as well as for the development of scientific infrastructure and the opening of new laboratories, in 2017 alone, an additional 3.5 billion rubles will be allocated to the already declared resources for science.
And of course, the activities of research centers should be closely integrated with the education system, the economy, and high-tech companies. We need to turn research into successful commercial products, by the way, we have always suffered from this, from development to implementation a huge amount of time passes, and in general sometimes... We do not want confrontation with anyone, we do not need it: neither us, nor our partners, nor the international community. Unlike some foreign colleagues who see Russia as an enemy, we are not and have never been looking for enemies. We need friends. But we will not allow our interests to be infringed upon or neglected. We want and will be in charge of our own destiny, to build the present and future without other people's prompts and unsolicited advice.
At the same time, we are committed to a friendly, equal dialogue, to establishing the principles of justice and mutual respect in international affairs. We are ready for a serious conversation about building a sustainable system of international relations in the 21st century. Unfortunately, in this regard, the decades since the end of the Cold War have been wasted.
We are for security and the opportunity for development not for a select few, but for all countries and peoples, for respect for international law and the diversity of the world. Against any monopoly, whether we are talking about claims to exclusivity or attempts to customize the rules of international trade, limit freedom of speech, and actually introduce censorship in the global information space. They always reproached us for allegedly introducing censorship within countries, but now they themselves are practicing in this direction.
Russia actively promotes a positive agenda in the work of international organizations and informal associations, such as the UN, G20, APEC. Together with our partners we are developing our formats: CSTO, BRICS, SCO. The priority of Russian foreign policy has been and remains the further deepening of cooperation within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union and interaction with other CIS states.
The Russian idea of forming a multi-level integration model in Eurasia - the Greater Eurasian Partnership - is also of serious interest. We have already begun substantive discussions on it at various international and regional levels. I am convinced that such a conversation is possible with the states of the European Union, in which today there is a growing demand for an independent subjective, political and economic course. We see this in the election results.
The enormous potential for Russia’s cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region was demonstrated by the Eastern Economic Forum held this year. I ask the Government to ensure the unconditional implementation of all previously adopted decisions on the development of the Russian Far East. And, let me emphasize again, Russia’s active eastern policy is not dictated by any current market considerations, not even by the cooling of relations with the United States of America or the European Union, but by long-term national interests and trends in global development.
In the current difficult conditions, one of the key factors in ensuring global and regional stability has become the Russian-Chinese comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation. It serves as an example of world order relations, built not on the idea of dominance of one country, no matter how strong it may be, but on harmonious consideration of the interests of all states.
Today, China is emerging as the largest economy in the world, and it is very important that every year our mutually beneficial cooperation is replenished with new large-scale projects in various fields: trade, investment, energy, high technology.
The most important direction of Russian foreign policy is the development of a particularly privileged strategic partnership with India. The results of the Russian-Indian high-level negotiations held in October in Goa confirmed that our countries have enormous potential for deepening cooperation in a variety of areas.
We count on qualitative progress in relations with our eastern neighbor - Japan. We welcome the desire of the leadership of this country to develop economic ties with Russia and launch joint projects and programs.
We are ready to cooperate with the new American administration. It is important to normalize and begin to develop bilateral relations on an equal and mutually beneficial basis.
Interaction between Russia and the United States in solving global and regional problems meets the interests of the whole world. We have a common responsibility for ensuring international security and stability, for strengthening non-proliferation regimes.
I would like to emphasize that attempts to break strategic parity are extremely dangerous and can lead to a global catastrophe. You cannot forget about this for a single second.
And of course, I count on the United States uniting its efforts in the fight against a real and not imaginary threat - international terrorism. This is precisely the task our military personnel are solving in Syria. Terrorists have suffered significant damage, the Russian army and navy have convincingly proven that they are capable of working effectively far from permanent locations.
By the way, we see the work that employees of special services and units are doing inside the country to combat terrorism. We also have losses there. All this, of course, is in the field of our attention. We will continue this work. I would like to thank all our military personnel for their professionalism and nobility, courage and bravery, for the fact that you - soldiers of Russia - value your honor and the honor of Russia.
Dear Colleagues! When people feel they are right and act united, they confidently follow their chosen path. It has not been easy for us in recent years, but these trials have made us even stronger, truly stronger, and helped us better and more clearly identify the areas in which we need to act even more persistently and energetically.
By overcoming current difficulties, we created the basis for further movement forward and did not stop working on the development agenda, which is extremely important. That is, we did not delve into any details of the current day, we did not deal only with the problems of survival, we thought about the development agenda and ensured it. And today it is this agenda that is becoming the main one, coming to the fore.
The future of the country depends only on us, on the work and talent of all our citizens, on their responsibility and success. And we will definitely achieve the goals set before us and solve the problems of today and tomorrow.
Thank you very much for your attention.
Moscow Kremlin
Publication date: 26.10.2016
Date of change: 26.10.2016
Attached file: pdf, 6.03 MB
MINISTRY OF FINANCE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
PROTOCOL No. 11
open meeting of the Public Council
under the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation
| Voting date: | October 11, 2016 |
| Presiding | - S.G. Sinelnikov-Murylev |
| Executive Secretary | - A.N. Deryugin |
| Participated | |
| Members of the Public Council | A.G. Aksakov, S.A. Vasiliev, E.E. Gavrilenkov, E.T. Gurvich, A.N. Deryugin, S.M. Drobyshevsky, A.B. Zabotkin, B.I. Zlatkis, A.S. Kalinin, V.A. Mau, A.V. Murychev, V.S. Nazarov, S.G. Sinelnikov-Murylev, A.V. Timofeev, K.S. Ugryumov, A.N. Shokhin, M.A. Eskindarov |
| Responsible employees of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation | A.G. Siluanov, T.G. Nesterenko, I.V. Trunin, M.S. Oreshkin, Yu.I. Zubarev, S.A. Storchak, A.V. Moiseev A.A. Afanasyev, S.V. Barsukov, S.V. Yachevskaya, A.A. Popov, S.V. Romanov, E.P. Yakovleva, G.G. Gesuynov, V.I. Brodsky, A.R. Gaskarov, T.I. Maksimov, S.A. Nikitina, R.E. Artyukhin, R.R. Fedorova, D.S. Khvorostukhina |
| Invited | A.V. Glagolev, A.N. Popov, D.S. Satin |
| AGENDA: | |
| 1. Discussion of the draft main directions of budget policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. 2. Discussion of the draft main directions of tax policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. report (20 min.) |
|
| LISTENED | |
| 1. M.S. Oreshkin - with a report on the issue “Main directions of budget policy for 2017 and the planning period of 2018 and 2019.” 2. I.V. Trunin - with a report on the issue “Main directions of tax policy for 2017 and the planning period of 2018 and 2019.” S.G. took part in the discussion of the reports. Sinelnikov-Murylev, A.G. Siluanov, A.S. Kalinin, A.N. Shokhin, E.T. Gurvich, M.A. Eskindarov, V.A. Mau, K.S. Ugryumov, E.E. Gavrilenkov, A.V. Timofeev. |
|
| DECIDED: | |
| 1. Approve in general the draft main directions of budget policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. 2. Approve in general the draft main directions of tax policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019. The special opinion of the members of the Public Council is presented in the appendix |
|
V.A. Mau, S.G. Sinelnikov-Murylev, A.N. Deryugin, S.M. Drobyshevsky, I.A. Sokolov, S.S. Shatalova:
Experts from RANEPA, the Institute of Economic Policy named after. E.T. Gaidar" and VAVT reviewed the draft main directions of budget and tax policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019 (hereinafter referred to as ONBP and ONNP) and report the following.
Main directions of budget policy for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019
1. The section “Main results of the implementation of budget policy in 2015-2016” contains a description of what the external conditions were and what happened in the area related to budget policy in recent years. At the same time, there is no analysis of the extent to which all this is related to the achievement of the previously set goals of budget policy (formulated in similar documents of recent years), what of the previously stated was successful, and what was not achieved, and for what reason. As a result, it remains unclear whether this document is a guide to action or is rather declarative in nature.
2. Over the past few years, there has been a lack of continuity in the goals and objectives of the National Security Safety Program. Taking into account the fact that the annual NBBP determines the main directions of budget policy for 3 years, that is, they extend to overlapping time intervals, it can be stated that despite the predominantly medium-term nature of budget planning (with the exception of 2016), budget policy priorities remained short-term , and, moreover, unstable, which largely neutralizes the advantages of adopting a budget for 3 years.
3. The deadline for submitting the NBBP this year, almost a week before consideration of the draft federal budget itself at a Government meeting, largely depreciates the significance of this document, turning it into an element of an explanatory note to the draft budget law.
4. The goals and objectives of budget policy formulated in the document often go far beyond the competence of budget policy itself, and therefore cannot be achieved solely through the use of its instruments.
5. The new budget rule, which does not contain any instructions regarding the filling and expenditure of funds from the National Welfare Fund, raises certain questions. It seems appropriate to further consider the parameters of the budget rule, rather than hastily approving it by the Government within the framework of the National Business Policy.
6. The document does not at all address the issue of managing the resources of the Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund, which is directly related to ensuring fiscal sustainability and reducing dependence on conditions on world commodity markets.
7. One of the objectives of budgetary policy in the field of interbudgetary relations in the National Budgetary Institution is “to promote the balance of the budgets of constituent entities and local budgets.” At the same time, the main share of the reduction in the total revenues of the consolidated budgets of the regions from 11.6% of GDP in 2016 to 11.0% of GDP in 2019 will be due to a reduction in interbudgetary transfers from the federal budget (from 1.8% to 1.4% GDP for the same period). Moreover, this reduction has nothing to do with a reduction in delegated powers, but will affect the financial support of one’s own regional and local powers. It is also worth noting that this reduction in transfers will be accompanied by a reduction in the regions’ revenue base due to the transfer of a 1% income tax rate to the federal budget. In the absence of a planned change in the division of powers between the federation and the regions, which could lead to a reduction in the expenditure obligations of regional and local budgets, if it is necessary to implement the May decrees of the President, the main burden of which falls on the regions, the planned reduction in the real volume of financial assistance to regional budgets goes against with the solution of the specified problem.
8. In the field of improving government programs, it is necessary to note the relevance of the proposed measures. At the same time, several fundamental issues remain without consideration, without the solution of which a qualitative change in the efficiency and effectiveness of budget expenditures is impossible:
When declaring the need to transfer greater freedom of action to responsible executors of state programs in exchange for increasing their responsibility for achieving results, state programs and accompanying documents acquired a large number of requirements for their detail, which turned them into a heavy superstructure duplicating the functions of strategic documents. This deprived the tool of flexibility and ability to keep up with the budget process.
The high share of non-program expenses (about 45% in 2016) and the absence of any prospects for full coverage of the federal budget by program-target principles will not allow them to take advantage of them, and will remain a significant obstacle to increasing budgetary efficiency.
Main directions of tax policy of the Russian Federation for 2017 and for the planning period of 2018 and 2019
1. Like the ONBP, the ONBP is presented in a new format, and like the ONBP, the document does not contain an analysis of the extent to which previously set tax policy goals were achieved. Moreover, in the form presented, it does not contain a description of previously implemented activities in this area. In order for the document to be not declarative, but effective, it seems advisable to include in it an analysis of the achievements of previously declared goals and objectives.
2. Among the proposed measures in the field of tax policy, we consider it necessary to support the following:
Introduction of an added income tax (AIT) in the oil industry for pilot fields (both new and already developed);
Continuation of the “tax maneuver”, including a reduction (up to the abolition in 2018-2020) of export duties on oil, an increase in the mineral extraction tax and a change in the excise tax scheme on petroleum products;
Support for small businesses (tax holidays, tax reduction on expenses for the purchase of cash registers, etc.);
Consideration of the issue of exemption from taxation of coupon income on circulating bonds;
Inventory of non-tax payments and inclusion of those that are essentially taxes in the Tax Code;
Introduction of restrictions on the possibility of offsetting losses of unprofitable companies as part of a consolidated group of taxpayers (CGT) against the profits of profitable participants;
Work on amending double taxation agreements, as well as from 2018 – the beginning of the automatic exchange of tax information with foreign tax authorities.
3. At the same time, the ONNP contains a number of proposals that, until now, have either not been widely discussed, or in relation to them there are not sufficiently developed measures for implementation:
Regarding income tax:
i. changing the procedure for transferring losses;
ii. change in the proportion of distribution of income tax revenues in favor of the federal budget: 3% in the Federal Bank and 17% in the Republic of Belarus (instead of 2:18);
iii. providing income tax benefits to companies that invest in infrastructure in the Far East (until taxes pay off the investment).
Collection, starting from 2018-2019, in the Russian Federation of VAT on imported goods sold by foreign suppliers to Russian individuals using Internet platforms (no real mechanism has been proposed to ensure payment of the tax and not allow circumventing this rule).
Increase in excise taxes on non-alcoholic beer (with an alcohol content of less than 0.5%).
In view of the close connection between the NSBP and the ONNP, we also propose to consider the issue of combining these documents in the future into a single document “Main directions of fiscal policy for the next financial year and planning period.”
Taking into account the above, we consider it possible to harmonize the presented drafts of the ONBP and ONNP, taking into account the existing comments.
ME AND. Kuzminov:
National Research University Higher School of Economics, Development Center Institute, N. Akindinova, A. Chernyavsky
Comments on the Main Directions of Budget Policy for 2017-2019
1. Assessment of external conditions.
The Ministry of Finance’s assessment of the external conditions for the implementation of budget policy in 2017-2019. (in terms of trade terms) looks justified. The short investment cycle and high price elasticity of the supply of shale oil from the United States, along with other factors, will keep the oil price in the range of $40-50 per barrel in the coming years. (at constant 2016 prices).
2. Assessing potential growth .
On page 23 of the draft ONBP, a rationale for the potential rates of economic growth in Russia expected in the medium term is provided. It is indicated that this assessment is made on the basis of the Harrod-Domar approach (main works 1948, 1973), which assumes that the level of savings (and investment) is a key factor in economic growth. Ministry of Finance specialists contrast this approach with the approach dating back to the Solow model (1956), which, in addition to the dynamics of factors (labor and capital), explains economic growth by changes in total factor productivity, which combines the effects of changes in technology, resource savings, and returns on human capital. In calculating potential growth (panel regression on cross-country data), Ministry of Finance specialists, along with the investment rate, include such factors as changes in the terms of trade, the ratio of budget expenditures to GDP and the deviation of the GDP level at purchasing power parity of the country from the average level for the sample.
It should be noted that this approach does not take into account the results of more recent classical studies of economic growth factors, for example, Barro (1991), Barro, Sala-i-Martin (2004), Mankiw, Romer and Weil (1992). According to the results of these studies, among the key factors of economic growth, in addition to those taken into account by specialists of the Ministry of Finance, at a minimum, it is necessary to include indicators of the level of education (human capital), openness of the economy, development of state and public institutions, and sociocultural factors.
Like The approach of the Ministry of Finance to determining the dynamics of potential growth, in our opinion, overestimates the importance of the investment rate for Russia compared to other factors. There is a characteristic difference between rapidly growing developing countries that started with a low level of GDP per employee and a high rate of investment (China, Korea), and countries with a high and average level of GDP per employee (including Russia, Brazil, South Africa), which have more moderate growth rates. In fact, the data provided by the Ministry of Finance (graph on page 23) show that the vast majority of countries with average annual growth rates below 2% have very different investment rates (from 18-19% to 26-27% of GDP), which does not allow us to calculate this factor is an absolute driver of economic growth, at least for countries with middle and high income levels.
Despite these comments, the Ministry of Finance’s estimate of average annual GDP growth per person employed in the medium term of 1.5% seems quite realistic.
3. Federal budget revenues.
The document rightly notes that in conditions of low oil prices, the key problem is replenishing budget revenues.
In the medium term, despite low forecast oil prices, oil and gas revenues continue to provide a third of federal budget revenues. At the same time, the condition for the growth of these incomes in nominal terms, ensuring budget balancing with stable oil prices and projected restrictions on the growth of production and physical volumes of oil and gas exports, becomes permanent nominal depreciation of the ruble .
This situation potentially creates risks of increasing tax burden in subsequent budget cycles.
As the main measure to mobilize revenue, the Ministry of Finance proposes to collect up to 50% of the net profit on state-owned shares of companies and profits of federal state unitary enterprises. Without rejecting the idea itself, we consider it necessary to think through a number of other issues. Companies with state participation have private owners who also claim dividends. It is necessary to assess how the withdrawal of half of the profit in each case will affect the company’s attractiveness to investors (especially taking into account the expected reduction in state participation) and, accordingly, on its development. Additionally, the prospect of taking 50% of net profits could encourage companies to cut profits by inflating costs. From this it follows, at least, that the state must create an effective system of control over the dynamics and structure of costs of state-owned companies.
The Ministry of Finance’s proposal to strengthen the fight against “gray salaries” in order to increase the collection of taxes and contributions to extra-budgetary funds from those working in the shadow and penumbra certainly corresponds to the principle of tax fairness. However, it should be taken into account that in the conditions of economic stagnation expected in the coming years, this will greatly complicate the survival of people, especially in the outback. We understand that it will not be possible to bring wages out of the shadows quickly, and therefore we need a serious program for bringing them out of the shadows, containing conditions, incentives, control measures, stages, and not the hope of quickly and radically changing the situation with the help of tax officials and the police.
4. Expenditures of the federal budget and the budget system.
The ONBP project assumes a reduction in the volume of budget system expenditures in 2017 to 35.6% of GDP versus 37.3% of GDP in 2016 (36.5% of GDP excluding realized federal budget guarantees for defense industry loans). The only section for which growth relative to GDP is expected (from 13.4% to 13.5%) is Social Policy; expenditures for other sections as a percentage of GDP are either reduced or remain unchanged.
Table 1. Expenditures of the budget system by functional classification, % of GDP.
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Total |
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National issues |
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National Defense |
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National economy |
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Environmental protection |
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Education |
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Culture, cinematography |
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Healthcare |
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Social politics |
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physical Culture and sport |
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Mass media |
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* the surge in income to the National Economy in 2014 was explained by the one-time transaction of transferring DIA OFZ for 1 trillion. rub. (1.3% of GDP)
** The surge in spending on National Defense in 2016 was explained by the early implementation of guarantees issued by the federal budget for loans to defense industry enterprises in 2010-2011, the repayment of which occurred in 2017-2018 - about 0.8% of GDP.
Taking into account the cuts in 2016, the total level of spending on human capital is reduced by 0.5% of GDP by 2017 and continues to decline until 2019. (Figure 1). In the proposed budget structure, by 2019, spending on the economy (state investment and subsidies), as well as costs on management and the power unit, will be reduced the most. Maintaining the proposed limit on spending on the security bloc is in principle feasible, but will require great political will and avoidance of new rounds of geopolitical tension.
The increase in the share of spending on Social Policy is due to the unresolved problem of reforming the pension system and will require additional solutions in the coming years.
Figure 1. Integrated structure of budget system expenditures, % of GDP
The spending policy of the federal budget assumes a continued reduction in its participation in financing healthcare and a minimal increase in spending on education (1.8% in 2017), Table 2. Thus, the prospects for financing expenditures on human capital will be in 2017-2019. are even more strongly related to the capabilities of regional budgets and the compulsory medical insurance system. At the same time, the Ministry of Finance’s forecast assumes a further reduction in both income and expenditure of the regions (relative to GDP). The reduction will be associated with a decrease in transfers to the regions in terms of “other transfers”. At the same time, the increase in subsidies is supposed to be financed through the “centralization” of 1% income tax, that is, income seized from the regions themselves.
Table 2. Dynamics of federal budget expenditures, billion rubles/% of previous. year
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Index |
2016/ 2015 |
2017/ 2016 |
2018/ 2017 |
2019/ 2018 |
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Total |
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National issues |
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National Defense* |
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National Security and Law Enforcement |
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National economy |
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Department of Housing and Utilities |
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Environmental protection |
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Education |
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Culture, cinematography |
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Healthcare |
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Social politics |
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physical Culture and sport |
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Mass media |
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Interbudgetary transfers of a general nature to the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation |
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Servicing state and municipal debt |
** The surge in spending on National Defense in 2016 was explained by the early implementation of guarantees issued by the federal budget for loans to defense industry enterprises in 2010-2011, the repayment of which was due in 2017-2018
5. Scarcity.
Starting from 2017, the Ministry of Finance plans to increase net borrowing on the domestic market in 2017-2019 to 1 trillion. rub. This is twice the net borrowings planned for 2016 and significantly exceeds borrowings on the OFZ market over the past five years. In 2014, a sharp increase in domestic debt was associated with the issue of OFZ to support the banking system (OFZ in the amount of 1 trillion rubles were transferred to the DIA). In 2016, over eight months in the OFZ market, the net attraction amounted to 226 billion rubles. We know that the increase in spending on the “power block” in 2016 will be fully or partially financed through a special issue of OFZ. This means that the Ministry of Finance does not plan to take all 449 billion rubles from the market. specified in the ENBP. This all the more calls into question plans to increase borrowing to 1 trillion in the next three years. rub. This strategy also has negative consequences. These include an increase in borrowing costs, interest expenses, and an increase in the cost of borrowing in the corporate bond market. In all cases, such a decision is associated with risks.
From the ONBP data in the section on financing the federal budget deficit, it follows that the Ministry of Finance plans to become a net recipient of budget loans from the regions from 2017. Such loans have been issued since 2008, and the actual balance of provision and repayment of these loans was negative for the Ministry of Finance from 2008 to 2016. It must be taken into account that a significant part of the recipients of budget loans are poor regions. It is unclear whether the above-mentioned “maneuver” with subsidies will be enough to help them.
In his thirteenth message to the Federal Assembly, Vladimir Putin emphasized the clearly formulated request of Russian society to the authorities for justice, respect for people and support for civil initiatives. The implementation of these principles requires specific measures, and the President elaborated on each of them.
Vladimir Putin immediately outlined the main topics of the message - economics, social issues and domestic policy. The president succinctly mentioned foreign policy at the very end of his speech.
The president began with a seemingly abstract topic, which, nevertheless, set the tone for all the other theses he expressed:
“Any injustice or untruth is perceived very sharply. This is generally a feature of our culture. Society resolutely rejects arrogance, rudeness, arrogance and selfishness, no matter who all this comes from, and increasingly values such qualities as responsibility, high morality, concern for public interests, willingness to hear others and respect their opinions.”
Based on these principles – justice, respect and willingness to listen to others, the head of state called on those gathered to build the country’s policy and interact with citizens.
Traditionally, the president quickly moved from the general to the specific, and his speech, which this time lasted 68 minutes, can be divided into the following theses, on the basis of which the political, economic and social development of Russia for the coming year will be built.
1. Increasing the role of the State Duma and strengthening the legislative power, as well as the development of institutions of direct democracy. Putin stressed that United Russia, the party he created and supported, has a constitutional majority this time and “is the main support of the government in parliament.” It is significant that many of the theses later voiced by the president previously appeared as promises in the election program of United Russia. It is unlikely that everyone who voted for the party on September 19 carefully read this voluminous document, but in fact the goals and objectives stated by the president are the fulfillment of the orders of that part of the citizens, on the basis of whose wishes the program of the party in power was drawn up.
2. Free thinking and inadmissibility of censorship based on respect for other people's opinions. The President addressed both parts of society - the “creators” who believe that there are no boundaries for self-expression, and the “guardians” who for some reason are sure that their strict artistic taste can serve as an excuse for destroying works of art or disrupting performances.
On the one hand, “this does not mean that by juggling with beautiful words and hiding behind arguments about freedom, someone can offend the feelings of other people and national traditions.” On the other hand, the president considers “a counter aggressive reaction unacceptable, especially if it results in vandalism and violation of the law. The state will react harshly to such facts.”
And once again - for those who did not understand the first time: “In culture, in politics, in the media, in public life, in polemics on economic issues, no one can prohibit free thinking and openly expressing one’s position.” .
3. The anniversary of revolutions is a reason for unification, not division. People all over the world love beautiful dates, and Russia is no exception. The collapse of the Russian Empire was caused by a combination of many external and internal factors, but any revolution occurs when one part of society ceases to hear the other, and the government is unable to achieve their reconciliation or, worse, itself remains extremely far from the current agenda.
Therefore, as the president noted, “it is unacceptable to drag splits, anger, grievances and bitterness of the past into our lives today, in our own political and other interests to speculate on the tragedies that affected almost every family in Russia, no matter what side of the barricades our ancestors found themselves on then.” " “Let’s remember, we are one people, we are one people, and we have one Russia,” he emphasized.
Any historical discussion should be conducted on the basis of this axiom; attempts to “finish the war” and impose one’s opinion on the events of a hundred years ago as the only correct one are unacceptable.
4. Saving the nation. These are primarily fertility and medicine. If everything is more or less good with our birth rate, the figures are higher than the European average, and infant mortality is steadily decreasing, then with medicine in general it is not so good yet. Putin focused on one important achievement - the number of people who received high-tech medical care has increased 15 times over 11 years - from 60,000 people to 900,000. But problems remain in primary care - a lack of qualified specialists, queues, insufficient information technology. To solve these problems, specific actions will be taken, in particular, regular retraining and connecting all hospitals and clinics to high-speed Internet, which will allow for more active development of telemedicine. Minister of Communications Nikolai Nikiforov was named personally responsible for the internetization of medicine.
5. High-quality secondary education. This topic, like the previous one, was actively studied during the campaign for the State Duma, so the president dwelled on it in detail. Elimination of the third and then second shifts, the development of children's technology parks, the formation of support centers for gifted students in the regions, as well as extracurricular projects in the theater, cinema, television, museums and the Internet. The main tasks of schools and teachers are “to provide knowledge and educate a moral person,” the fundamental principle is “every child and teenager is gifted, discovering his talents is our task.” That is, respect should extend not only to adults, but also to children.
6. "Atmosphere of common affairs." Perhaps never before has a head of state paid so much attention to volunteering and non-profit organizations in his address. Federal and regional authorities are tasked not only with not interfering with civil initiatives, but with supporting them. “I want both governors and municipal authorities to hear me. “I ask you, as they say, not to be greedy, not to give preference exclusively to state-owned structures out of habit, out of practice, but to involve non-profit organizations in the execution of social services to the maximum,” the president addressed the officials. Already at the beginning of next year it will become clear whether they heard, or, as in the case of “academic officials,” the slow-witted ones will have to part with their chairs. But support for civil initiatives by the president personally is a serious argument for NPO workers when communicating with officials at various levels. It will be more difficult to “brush it off.”
7. Improvement for the sake of people, not for the sake of improvement. Speaking on this topic, the president mentioned the ONF for the first time in his speech, calling on “front-line soldiers” to organize “effective control, and with its help, achieve concrete results” in the course of disbursing 20 billion rubles, which will be sent to the regions for improvement. The President also called on both the ONF and civil society as a whole to join in solving “such problems as improving environmental legislation, preserving rare species of animals and plants, and creating a humane system for treating stray animals.” Declared the Year of Ecology, 2017 should not be a formal event, but an opportunity to make our cities and towns more comfortable for life - to eliminate landfills, tidy up rivers and lakes.
In the same block, Putin spoke about large-scale plans to modernize the road network outside Moscow and St. Petersburg - “in two years, at least half of the roads here should be put in order.”
8. Eeconomics – from sustainability to growth. The president dwelled on what allowed the country to survive the current crisis with minimal losses - and what could become drivers of growth - in particular detail, with numbers and details. To put it as briefly as possible, against the backdrop of the constant howls of the opposition “everything is lost, boss,” a powerful agro-industrial complex was created in the country, the income from the export of its products last year exceeded the income from the arms trade, as well as the IT sector. The agro-industrial complex brought in 16.2 billion dollars on the foreign market, the defense industry - 14.5 billion, information technology - 7 billion.
Development will go in the same direction - credit support for farmers, benefits on insurance premiums for IT companies, an increase in the number of civilian products produced by the agro-industrial complex.
The tax system will remain unchanged until the end of 2018, and on January 1, 2019, a new one will go into effect, which should also remain unchanged for many years.
Unscrupulous law enforcement officers will not be allowed to “make a nightmare of business.” Regional banks should be allowed to approach the assessment of small business borrowers less strictly. Also, the state should support self-employed people; accusing them of “illegal entrepreneurship” is unacceptable, the president believes.
9. " The fight against corruption is not a show.” Traditionally noting that the majority of civil servants are honest people, and “neither position, nor high connections, nor past merits can be a cover for dishonest government officials,” Putin criticized investigators who raise “information noise around so-called high-profile cases.” . The President recalled the presumption of innocence and noted that the fight against corruption will only receive public support when it is professional, serious and responsible. That is, again we are talking about respect for people, preventing a serious topic from turning into a farce.
10. Science and high technology - a matter of national security. The President also dwelled on this topic in detail. He outlined the main problem, which has remained unchanged for more than a hundred years - “to transform research foundations into successful commercial products.” “By the way, we have always suffered from this; a huge amount of time passes from development to implementation,” the president noted. In order to reverse this trend, a wide range of measures has been developed: this includes support for education - engineering, technical and IT, financial support for scientific research, including from VEB, the allocation of grants designed for seven years of work, the creation of laboratories, the return of those who left scientists abroad. The task is formulated quite clearly and unambiguously: “It is necessary to focus on areas where the powerful technological potential of the future is accumulating, and these are digital and other so-called end-to-end technologies that today determine the appearance of all spheres of life. Countries that can generate them will have a long-term advantage, the opportunity to receive enormous technological rent. Those who do not do this will find themselves in a dependent, vulnerable position.”
All these priorities are included in the “Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of Russia”. The decree approving it was signed.
11. “Security and the opportunity for development are not for a select few, but for all countries and peoples.” Foreign policy became the final topic the president addressed. Here, too, everything is quite clear and unambiguous. Russia has been and remains a peace-loving power, interested in partnership with all countries of the world. As an example, the head of state cited Russian-Chinese cooperation, which is “an example of world order relations built not on the idea of dominance of one country, no matter how strong it may be, but on harmonious consideration of the interests of all states.”
Putin emphasized the inadmissibility of censorship in the global information space, the unacceptability of the concept of “exceptionalism” of any country, and also called on the new US administration to fight “a real, not fictitious threat - international terrorism” and warned that “attempts to break strategic parity are extremely dangerous and can lead to a global catastrophe."
The head of state also expressed gratitude to those who are fighting terrorism, both outside and inside Russia.
At the end of the message, the president especially noted that during the crisis, “we did not delve into any trifles of the current day, we did not deal only with the problems of survival, we thought about the development agenda and ensured it - and today it is this agenda that is becoming the main one, coming to the fore "
“The future of the country depends only on us, on the work and talent of all our citizens, on their responsibility and success. And we will definitely achieve the goals set before us, solve the problems of today and tomorrow,” these words concluded Vladimir Putin’s thirteenth presidential message, which is also the first for the new State Duma.
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Budget policy should be aimed at improving the living conditions of Russians, solving social problems and improving the quality of state and municipal services. Dmitry Medvedev stated this when presenting the budget message to members of the Government and Parliament. Among the priorities are reducing insurance premium rates and decentralizing powers. The transfer of power from the center to the regions will contribute to more efficient work. Our columnist Vladimir Kondratiev listened to the President. Vladimir Petrovich, you are live. What key points did the President highlight?
KOR: Well, there are 12 of these points. The President listed 12 priority tasks for the next 3 years. But I must say that this is already the 4th budget message of the President in the current presidential term. If the first term he did according to the classic version, the first announcement of the budget message he did according to the classic version, that is, he submitted it in writing, then the last 3 times the President also announces it personally. But not the whole message, of course, but only the most important theses. But journalists paid great attention to this event. The press center here in Gorki, near Moscow, was full. There were quite a few foreign correspondents. And everyone was waiting for what Medvedev would say on the instructions and initiatives that he had put forward recently. We remember that in Magnitogorsk and St. Petersburg, Medvedev named several interesting ideas and projects. And almost all of these projects are included as an integral part of the current budget message. At the very beginning, in his opening remarks, even before he began to announce 12 key tasks, the President spoke about the main direction, the priority... content of this budget message.
DMITRY MEDVEDEV (PRESIDENT OF THE RF): The key tasks of our budget policy are, of course, the modernization of our country, our economy, the creation of conditions for increasing the competitiveness of the economy and long-term sustainable development. In the coming years, a fundamentally new model of economic growth should be formed in Russia. It should be based on the growth of private initiative, on innovations, and not such fragmented, exemplary ones, but on mass innovations, on an effective system of public services, on high-quality financial and production infrastructure.
KOR: And after that, the President moved on to 12 priority tasks. He set the following task: to create a long-term forecast of economic development up to 1930... 2030, excuse me, also develop a strategy for the early development of Russia from 2013 to 2022, that is, for 10 years. He talked about the need to increase pensions and benefits. Next year pensions will be increased by 11%, social benefits by 6%. From the 12th year it will increase, a harmonious system of monetary allowances for military personnel will be created, and from the 13th year - for all other representatives of law enforcement agencies. The President spoke about increasing attention to environmental issues, spoke about increasing the impact of state and municipal services, and spoke about reducing the role of the state in managing state assets. We know that by August 1, a privatization program must be developed, or rather, finalized. And in some places the state will not even have a controlling stake. But this does not apply, the President said, to such areas as national security. The President spoke about the launch of a private equity fund with the participation of public and private capital. About the transition to the so-called electronic budget. That is, we are talking about an integrated system of managed... financial management. The President, I already mentioned this, that he spoke in Magnitogorsk, today he spoke separately about insurance premiums. We know that fees have been reduced. Had a big business. Previously it was 34%. Now for large businesses 30%, for small businesses 20%. This is what the President said about where sources of compensation for these shortfalls in income will be found.
DMITRY MEDVEDEV (PRESIDENT OF THE RF): For 12-13, the maximum rates of compulsory insurance contributions will be reduced from 34 to 30%. And for small businesses in the industrial and social spheres, as well as for a wide range of non-profit organizations from 26% to 20%. We have sources to compensate for lost income. There are opportunities to receive additional funds as a result of the disposal of federal property, that is, privatization. There are oil and gas revenues, there are reserves, and finally other sources are possible.
KOR: After the announcement of the budget message, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin came out to reporters, I asked how much of this shortfall in revenues will be due to the reduction in insurance premiums and from what sources will they be financed first?
ALEXEY KUDRIN (DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE RF GOVERNMENT, MINISTER OF FINANCE RV): The volume of lost income is about 400 billion rubles. It is assumed that the presidential address says that money from privatization, money from oil and gas revenues, and other sources should be used. We will block or increase the use of oil and gas revenues. Well, today we can safely say that we will have to slightly increase the budget deficit. . covered by oil and gas revenues. And increase funds from privatization.
KOR: Well, the second popular topic, or rather one of the popular topics that the President raised, is the introduction of a real estate tax, which will replace the property tax. That's what he said, first let's listen to what the President said.
DMITRY MEDVEDEV (PRESIDENT OF THE RF): The Russian tax system must meet modern challenges in the context of economic globalization. It should not be too burdensome for society. Of course, it should contribute to the development of Russia as a Federal state. It is necessary to increase the fiscal incentive function of taxes levied on companies operating in the oil and gas sector, the alcohol industry and the tobacco industry. At the same time, it is necessary to replace the existing property tax with a special property tax, which we have repeatedly discussed. As well as the expansion of the patent system for taxation of small businesses.
KOR: At our request, Alexey Kudrin deciphered what is meant by replacing the property tax with a real estate tax
ALEXEY KUDRIN (DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE RF GOVERNMENT, MINISTER OF FINANCE RV): We still expect a real estate tax somewhere from 13-14, that is, within the next 3 years, but due to the fact that we will switch to market prices , we will significantly lower the tax rates themselves. Therefore, when moving to a new levy base, we are not going to take significantly more, and in principle we are not going to raise for all major social groups, pensioners there and others.
KOR: And finally, the most important issue that Medvedev raised in St. Petersburg is the upcoming decentralization of government bodies in favor, first of all, of municipalities.
DMITRY MEDVEDEV (PRESIDENT OF THE RF): It is necessary to ensure effective decentralization of powers between levels of government in favor of regions and municipalities. I have created a special group under the administration, which must prepare the relevant proposals until the end. They include both the head of the Government and the governor. Including increasing the share of revenues in regional and local budgets in the structure of the consolidated budget of Russia, which should correspond to the new distribution of powers. If necessary, proposals should be prepared to change the structure of the tax system and budget legislation.
KOR: From the point of view of Finance Minister Kudrin, this process will look like this.
ALEXEY KUDRIN (DEPUTY CHAIRMAN OF THE RF GOVERNMENT, MINISTER OF FINANCE OF THE RF): The task has been set to increase resources at the level of constituent entities and municipalities. Such proposals will be developed by working groups of the Presidential Administration, which will include members of the Government. By the end of the year, in December, and accordingly, we will no longer be able to use these decisions in the budget of the 12th year, but in the next budget cycle we will already make proposals for a new division of both powers and revenue sources between the levels of subjects.
KOR: I also asked Minister Kudrin and Arkady Dvorkovich why the budget message did not reflect such an issue of concern to everyone as the transfer of government institutions from Moscow outside the city. They said, Kudrin said that there is no project yet, and Dvorkovich said that in July the President is convening a meeting on this issue and then some specific parameters of this project will be named. And then financing will be provided. Well, among other things, Medvedev, when he completed his announcement of the budget message, he said that in July he would have another meeting where all the specific parameters of the upcoming budget would be announced.
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