Growth will continue. Analysts assessed the prospects for the Russian economy. Will it shoot or not? A simple way to assess the market prospects of a project

It is impossible not to take into account the development prospects of the company. Even if a top manager convinces the appraiser that the prospects are bright, things are going uphill and soon “the whole market will be ours” - this still does not mean anything. The appraiser's tool is facts. Where to get them in this case?

Founder of the company "Singularity", general producer Russian Marketing Week:

When assessing the development prospects of an enterprise, the most important thing to understand is that even if the company seems attractive today, the situation may change. Therefore, it is extremely important to see what the enterprise will be like in the future, based on the trends existing in it and in the market.

Firstly, it is worth paying attention to the fact that When was the last time new products appeared?. If the product line has been updated for a long time, most likely, the attractiveness of the enterprise will soon decrease.

Secondly, it is necessary to evaluate company's product orientation. Does the market really need what the company has? Or is success just the result of marketing efforts? For example, if we see that in a company a small number of employees are involved in improving the product, and in the advertising and sales departments there is an inflated staff, then this fact inevitably entails questions.

Thirdly, it is important to pay attention to number of new competencies which the company's employees have mastered over the past year. If an enterprise is slow to adopt new technologies, relying mainly on previous achievements, then there is a high probability that in a couple of years the enterprise will simply be replaced in the market. If a company knows how to acquire new competencies, express its knowledge in new brands, new methods of marketing and new products, then it will always be promising.

Sergey Balakirev, director media agency AMG, member Council of the Guild of Marketers,(Yekaterinburg city):

To assess the development prospects of an enterprise, you need to pay attention to several points:

1. Market capacity.
We need to know how much the market can generally consume such products? If the company operates only in Yekaterinburg, we evaluate the Yekaterinburg market. If for the whole of Russia, we evaluate the entire market.

2. Next, we take into account whether the market capacity is declining or whether there are still prospects for growth.
For example, from 2010 to 2014 the real estate market grew by 240%. During this period, the developer could offer anything to the market—relatively speaking, a concrete meter—and they would still buy it, as there was frantic demand. But already in 2015, the market fell by 41% and is now fixed at this level. That is, the ceiling on market capacity has been found, and market capacity will not grow in the coming years.

3. We evaluate the market share that the company occupies.

4. Assess whether the market itself is dying.
It happens that an enterprise has a huge market share, but the market itself will soon die, since a technologically new way to satisfy a need has appeared (For example, CDs have appeared instead of cassettes). This means that development prospects are poor and the risk is high.

5. Level of competition in the market.
It happens that the market capacity has not yet reached its peak, because the consumer is not yet aware of this way of satisfying his needs. For example, we build with brick, and then suddenly a plastic block appears - a mixture of foam plastic and concrete, which allows us to build faster and cheaper. But the consumer is not ready to switch to a new product due to the inertia of thinking. This is where it is necessary to create a culture of consumption of this or that product.

6. Does the company have its own niche in the market and how are things going in it?
Sometimes a company does not intend to occupy the entire market, but chooses the most attractive segment and operates in it. Different groups of people buy shoes at different intervals. I divided the market into 6 segments, I don’t need all 100%, I take 2 segments for myself - my consumers are there. It may be like this: the market as a whole is falling, but it is in these two segments that it is growing. And then my development prospects are good. Even with a shrinking market.

Roman Churilin, head of the fund's portfolio company transformation project "Sigma Capital":

Assessing business development prospects usually focuses on 6 areas; I will consider in more detail two blocks directly related to the main profile of companies.

1. Assessing a company's prospects begins with "pie size" estimates, that is, the size and growth rate of the market, and the company’s ability to gain or maintain a share of this market. Analyzed:

• current volume, dynamics and margins of the market, as well as their forecast in relation to specific drivers (for example, situations in client industries);
• degree of market consolidation and competitive advantages of players;
• plans for major players from other industries to enter the market;
• the company’s current and target market share, taking into account business scaling opportunities, product and pricing policies of competitors, etc.;
• the company has a competitive advantage in the form of exclusive access to raw materials, developed infrastructure, patents, etc.;
• the presence of a diversified client base or portfolio of contracts.

2. After assessing the potential of the market as a whole, the appraiser needs to make a conclusion about the extent to which the company’s current and target production capacity able to meet demand, for which they are assessed:

• maximum productivity of the enterprise, availability of capacity reserves or expansion programs;
• cost of production, which determines the operating profitability of the enterprise and the ability to compete on price;
• compliance of the company with market requirements for product quality and delivery time.

Increasing state participation in economic activity will lead to the fact that in six years the Russian real estate market will be significantly different from today, analysts predict

Rental rates for commercial real estate in Russia over the next six years may increase by 15-20% from the current level. Overall, there will be no significant speculative growth in the commercial real estate market until 2024. This is stated in a study by the international consulting company Cushman & Wakefield (C&W), presented to reporters on Tuesday.

Company experts expect an increased role of the state and its influence on the Russian real estate market in the government’s new six-year economic course. “Several main factors will influence the market - increased taxes, increased state control over business, the development of Russian production, the digital economy, lending, urban development and others,” predicted Denis Sokolov, the company’s partner, head of the C&W research department.

During this period, the trend towards aging and obsolescence of offices, shopping centers and industrial real estate for newly built properties will also intensify. According to Denis Sokolov, the new supply of offices and shopping centers will be formed through the reconstruction of facilities built in the 1990s, and to a lesser extent, through new construction.

“In a six-year electoral cycle, the feasibility of constructing a particular facility will be determined not by its economic model, sustainability or profitability, but by its role in a larger scale project or government program. The main bottleneck will be access to credit resources, and it is participation in the state project that will open access to these resources for development companies. Commercial development will be sporadic, occupying niche positions,” Denis Sokolov predicted.

One of the main factors that will affect players and the commercial real estate market will be an increase in the tax burden, according to company experts. “This means that the requirements for business profitability and margins will begin to increase. The survival of low-margin business and industry will be in question,” explained Denis Sokolov.

Strengthening government control and regulation of markets and business are also cited by company analysts as an important and expected factor in the next six years. “The growth of the bureaucracy will lead to demand for jobs, the need for personnel responsible for interaction with the regulator. Overall, this will create additional vacancies. At the same time, Denis Sokolov sees advantages for the office real estate market in this situation. “Additional jobs create a need for additional office space, which is good for brokers, developers and business center owners,” the analyst said.

Over the next six years, analysts expect the state to continue to rely on its own production. “The construction of production facilities that fit into the state concept will receive a green light and access to financing,” noted Denis Sokolov.

Urban development will be an important factor in the next six years. “We see how Moscow has changed. The social and economic consequences of these reforms will only begin to emerge in the coming years. Already today we can state the death of the central business district of the capital, which was limited to the Garden Ring. We see decentralization of offices and an increase in the center, which is already limited to the Third Transport Ring. Within six years, the center of Moscow will go further and reach the second metro ring,” summarized the C&W partner.

(CCI) assessed the prospects for the gasoline market in Russia.

“Changes in the gasoline market affect both the population’s attitude towards the authorities and the development of the economy. Therefore, all over the world it is under constant surveillance by authorities and the media,” he noted. “The main indicators that concern society in Russia are the price of gasoline and its quality. This week, events occurred that could greatly affect both of these indicators: a sharp fall in the ruble exchange rate and the release of environmentally friendly Euro-6 gasoline on the Russian market,” Tankaev emphasized.

According to him, since the beginning of the year, the ruble/euro exchange rate has fallen by 15 percent, and this creates conditions for an accelerated rise in gasoline prices, which is still being blocked. “We do not live in a vacuum. There are neighbors around us who are ready to buy our high-quality gasoline. After the fall of the ruble, retail prices for gasoline in Poland are 2.4 times higher than in Russia, in Latvia - 2.5 times, in Finland - 2.7 times. Our neighbor Norway is the largest oil exporter in Europe, but gasoline there has now become 3.5 times more expensive than in Russia,” says Tankaev.

At the same time, he notes that “our gasoline market is not protected by a customs barrier.” “The customs duty on the export of commercial gasoline from Russia is ridiculous: it is equal to $36 per ton, which is ten times less than it was in 2014. In fact, our gasoline market is saved by the civic position of oil companies, primarily Rosneft,” the expert emphasizes.

Of course, in his opinion, administrative regulation of the gasoline market can lead to a crisis and an uncontrollable jump in prices. “We saw this in 1995, 2000 and 2008. Now we are habitually stepping on the same rake for the fourth time,” he says. “The negative changes are already clearly visible. Over four years, the share of oil that is processed into gasoline has dropped from 95 percent to 80 percent. In 2017, 2 percent less motor gasoline was produced than in 2016. Most oil companies have stopped reconstructing oil refineries, since the sale of gasoline does not bring profit,” says Tankaev. And he notes that in these difficult conditions, Rosneft not only continues to invest in the reconstruction of its oil refineries, but also creates new production facilities for consumables, such as catalysts, and new grades of fuel, such as AI-95-K5 gasoline. Euro 6" and ATUM - 95 "Euro 6". “Currently, in terms of operational and environmental characteristics, these are the best gasolines in Europe. At the same time, the price of Euro 6 gasoline is no higher than the price of Euro 5 gasoline,” the expert believes.

So far, pilot sales of Euro 6 gasoline have begun only in the Republic of Bashkortostan, since new brands of gasoline are produced only at Rosneft’s Bashkir refineries. However, gasoline of this class can significantly improve the environmental situation in large Russian cities. “Therefore, we will wait for their appearance at gas stations in Moscow, St. Petersburg and other large cities. In addition, Euro 6 gasoline can significantly extend the life of car engines, so all car owners are interested in them,” Tankaev expressed hope.

An analysis of the results of trading activities of PKF IMEX LLC showed that in 2007, compared to 2006, trade turnover decreased both in current and comparable prices, the level of sales income and sales expenses increased as a percentage of turnover, decreased labor productivity, commodity turnover slowed down.

To increase the efficiency of trade and production activities of PKF IMEX LLC, it is necessary to:

1) conduct a survey of visitors to identify their preferences;

2) expand the range of products offered;

3) form the optimal volume and structure of trade turnover;

4) effectively use the pricing mechanism (reduce trade markups);

5) increase the interest of employees in the results of their work through the use of differentiated bonus payments through payments from net profit;

6) improve the organization of work and operating hours in order to increase the efficiency of using equipment, etc.;

7) increase the efficiency of using working capital.

The consumer subjectively evaluates the quality of service based on the service culture; duration of service; comfort in the sales area; convenience of the location of the enterprise and the operating hours of the trading floor.

PKF IMEX LLC has the opportunity to constantly improve its competitiveness in the market. The factors that make it possible to successfully do this include the following areas that are actively being developed:

1. Improving the professionalism and quality of work performed.

Unfortunately, in the conditions of constant growth in demand for quality products, the available production capacities are almost maximally loaded, and the declared principle of operational production in the eyes of the client, who does not take into account the presence of a strict work schedule, may be undermined. To avoid such a situation, PKF IMEX LLC pays great attention to the professional qualifications of employees directly working on the sales floor. The main staff has extensive professional experience, which allows us to minimize service time without losing the quality of trade. Moreover, the Soviet principle of training new young personnel has been adopted, which gives very good results. To constantly improve the quality of trade, additional equipment is periodically purchased and installed, which allows us to keep up with large, well-equipped trade facilities. Because a client who is dissatisfied with the quality of the product is a potential client for a competitor.

2. Improving work with clients.

The constant search for new clients, conducted by the management staff of PKF IMEX LLC, the attraction of city advertising agencies to cooperation on favorable terms for them, and proactive work with regular clients allow us to build a clear work schedule, ensure maximum workload, and receive maximum profit without increasing the price level . Constant adherence to the principle of efficiency creates PKF IMEX LLC a significant advantage over most Minsk retail outlets, whose service time is often two to three times longer.

The quality of service provided to visitors of PKF IMEX LLC plays a huge role in attracting new customers and winning the loyalty of regular visitors. The quality of service for visitors and their satisfaction from visiting PKF IMEX LLC can be determined by the Book of Reviews and Suggestions, which is kept by the administrator. An analysis of the notes left indicates that sometimes the quality of service to visitors leaves much to be desired, although not all comments from visitors are objective and justified; there are also notes of gratitude to individual sales employees.

In order to get a real picture of the level of service quality at PKF IMEX LLC, management can use progressive research methods.

Recently, a method such as “Mystery Guest” has become widespread abroad - this is a study whose task is to objectively evaluate the activities of an establishment and service; this is one of the forms of feedback from visitors, which most often cannot be obtained in other ways.

The research consists of visiting the trading floor by “fake Guests” (experts), who communicate with the staff under the guise of interested visitors and evaluate the quality of work of both the staff themselves and the entire establishment.

At the customer's request, the report can be presented in the form of completed questionnaires or expert recommendations.

The goals of the “Secret Guest” method:

Checking the quality of service (identifying weak and strong points in working with the Guest).

Checking the honesty and loyalty of staff.

Competitive analysis.

Clarification of the most important performance criteria for the development of an individual employee training program.

Maintaining staff in constant tone and monitoring staff productivity.

The “Secret Guest” method will allow you to:

Improve the quality of visitor service;

See problem areas in the store;

Reduce the risk of losing visitors;

Increase staff productivity;

Increase profits;

Adjust training programs for staff.

The deepening and development of all of the above areas allows us to constantly increase the competitiveness of the organization and occupy, albeit an insignificant, but stable market share, which allows PKF IMEX LLC to operate successfully for many years.

MOSCOW, November 15 – RIA Novosti. In ten years, cryptocurrencies will be widely used as a means of payment, and national cryptocurrencies will appear in various countries around the world, according to experts interviewed by RIA Novosti.

In October, Evgeny Kaspersky said that cryptocurrencies will work well in a single world, but the world is not yet ready for them. He predicts that in 300 years, cryptocurrencies will be “an absolutely amazing thing.”

Analysts believe that it is impossible to predict what will happen in 300 years with cryptocurrencies and the new market associated with them. At the same time, experts are confident that in 10 years cryptocurrencies will not disappear, but, on the contrary, will become a new integral part of the global financial market.

Near future

According to experts, technological progress continues, the world is constantly changing, and these changes also apply to cryptocurrencies. Such development is already observed today, they believe.

“I believe that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have great value right now, today. We don’t need to wait 300 years. We should strive for a world where anyone, anywhere, if they want, can buy and sell cryptocurrencies,” says the co-founder and chairman cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes.

“The only thing I'm sure of is that in 300 years I'll be dead,” said Brave New Coin technical analyst Josh Olszewicz.

As economic commentator Maxim Blunt noted, Kaspersky’s position is “strange.” “The essence and meaning is exactly that the rules are simple, unchangeable, the same for everyone and not subject to anyone’s influence. This is significant right now and not so significant in the hypothetical “one world”, which neither Kaspersky nor anyone else will live to see of our contemporaries,” he said.

“Money today is radically different from what it was called 15 years ago. I am so old that I remember the times when plastic cards and payment systems were a curiosity. I also remember the times when there was no Internet. It is difficult to imagine the life of Russians today without them Everything has been happening very quickly lately... Even now Bitcoin, not to mention most of the altcoins that appeared later (alternative cryptocurrencies formed as a result of a fork - a change in the rules for conducting transactions within the network - ed.), is not limited to performing the functions inherent in a currency. Therefore, it makes sense to talk about the future of cryptocurrencies in the context of discussions about the transformation of money as such. You could write a whole book about this,” the expert added.

Director of the Center for Economic Research at Synergy University Andrei Koptelov pointed out that 300 years ago no one could even predict the technologies that are now actively used. “At the same time, the rate of penetration of new technologies into our lives is increasing every year, and each new technological solution becomes in demand faster than the previous one, and that is why we can guarantee that cryptocurrencies will become an amazing thing in this century,” he noted.

The expert believes that in 10 years, cryptocurrencies will experience many more ups and downs. “It is possible that the place of Bitcoin will be taken by other financial instruments, and ordinary investors will lose their investments. But we can say with confidence that many more solutions based on blockchain technologies will appear over these 10 years that will gradually change our lives,” he said . Koptelov added that in 300 years the very concept of cryptocurrency will change,

“Cryptocurrencies will become a completely new tool for the most advanced users, among whom, of course, are developers, programmers, mathematicians, and global businessmen. We now, in the form of Bitcoin, Ether and other cryptocurrencies, see the birth of a completely new market in which new goods and services will be created, sold only for cryptocurrencies,” Evgeniy Gordeev, founder of the DeCenter portal, shared his assumption.

"In 5-10 years, we will probably be using mainstream crypto to pay for everything. The means of payment could be either Bitcoin or government digital currency. People are overestimating what will happen in the next two years and underestimating what will happen in 10 years “I think that in 10 years we will see national cryptocurrencies everywhere - they are easier to track,” Olszewicz said.

“In today’s realities, it is difficult to predict what the world of cryptocurrencies will be like in a year. For 10 years, it is even more difficult to make informed predictions. We may face both the widespread use of cryptocurrencies and changes in current financial and government institutions, and the complete oblivion of this idea. But the latter is very it’s unlikely, because the vector has been set, and the world’s leading economies are seriously working on this market.... With the speed of change in our lives that we have now, we will certainly have completely new payment instruments (in 300 years - ed.),” says the founder and the head of the rating agency ICOrating Alexander Kamshilov.

Russia has something to strive for

A number of countries around the world have already opened their markets to cryptocurrencies—digital instruments based on blockchain technology. The most popular cryptocurrency in the world is Bitcoin. However, the Russian authorities approach this issue with caution. The Central Bank has repeatedly stated that it is premature to admit cryptocurrencies to trading in the Russian Federation and warned about the high risks of their use.

"Many countries, including Russia, limit the movement of capital, many fix or manage the exchange rate of their national currencies. Cryptocurrencies have a cross-border nature. They destroy the monopoly of states on money, and in this sense are ahead of their time. Now fully recognize and switch to them, abandoning strong national currency, no one is ready. Switching to Bitcoin is the same as switching to foreign currency. At the same time, creating your own centrally issued electronic currencies is not only possible, but is also becoming more and more attractive for states,” believes Mansur Huseynov, an expert at the Cryptolife portal .

“The key issue in the financial sector is trust in the currency and the convenience of making payments. As soon as cryptocurrencies survive all the “growing pains” and reach uniform development without financial bubbles and extreme volatility, Russians will begin to use them in everyday life along with the ruble and other currencies. Despite legal restrictions, there are areas of life where payments with cryptocurrencies will become commonplace in this decade, regardless of whether the state approves it or not,” says Koptelov.

“It is difficult to predict the time frame when cryptocurrencies will become familiar to the majority of Russians; most likely, 20 years will be enough, if, of course, cryptocurrencies are authorized by the state and also provided with technological solutions that allow anyone to use them,” the expert suggested.

“A small part of the Russian population has already come into contact with the world of cryptocurrencies, mainly for the purpose of investing in the currencies themselves or projects conducting ICOs (public offering of tokens). If we talk about the widespread use of cryptocurrencies, it is difficult to give time forecasts. Much depends on the joint efforts of the state and many interested organizations," Kamshilov said.

“Russians are already familiar with cryptocurrencies. Russians are some of the best programmers in the world. They are definitely familiar with Bitcoin. If our society does not regress technologically, we continue to be more interconnected with the Internet or similar networks, then cryptocurrencies will become ubiquitous,” I am sure Hayes.

Alpari senior analyst Roman Tkachuk made a similar forecast for cryptocurrencies, noting that the popularity of Bitcoin will continue in 300 years as the “first cryptocurrency.” However, he warned that paper money would not go to waste. “There will always be a category of citizens who are cautious about all new products (be it plastic cards, cryptocurrencies or something else) - they are more accustomed and calmer to using paper money,” he explained his point of view.